<div style="text-align: justify; "><span style="font-size: 1rem;">If France wants to lead Europe to a new era of military self-reliance, how come its contribution to the war effort in Ukraine is so small?</span><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">That is the awkward question being posed by some of the country's top strategic thinkers, who are pushing President Emmanuel Macron to make an urgent decision on more arms to Kyiv.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Recent analysis conducted on the ground in Poland and Ukraine shows that the French share of foreign arms deliveries is less than 2%, way behind the US on 49%, but also behind Poland (22%) and Germany (9%).</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"I was concerned about the reliability of the statistics which showed France low on the list of contributing countries," says François Heisbourg, who is perhaps France's most influential defence analyst.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"So I went out to the main distribution hub in Poland to see how much in tonnage was actually being delivered, rather than just promised.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"Unfortunately the figures bore out my fears. France is way down the list - in ninth position."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The official reaction to this in Paris is: "Yes, but..."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Yes, the aid statistics are unflattering, but there are other factors at work.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">First, defence officials say the true measure of military help is quality not quantity. Some countries are delivering masses of outdated equipment. France has given 18 Caesar self-propelled artillery units, which are now celebrated along the Ukrainian front-line.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">France, they add, is like other Western countries in having run down military stocks as part of the post-Cold War peace dividend.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Ukraine's Caesars are fully one quarter of France's entire mobile artillery. It cannot offer much more without making itself vulnerable in regions where it is already committed, like the Sahel and the Indo-Pacific.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"It might look like we are behind other countries, but France has every intention of playing its part," says Gen Jérome Pellistrandi, editor of the National Defence Review.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">These arguments are not without merit, says Mr Heisbourg. The problem is that by not being more present in theatre, France risks writing itself out of the plot.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"When I was in Kyiv, everyone was very polite. I had no sense that the Ukrainians disapproved of us," he says. "In a way it was worse. I had the distinct feeling we were becoming irrelevant."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">For Mr Heisbourg the equation is simple. Ukraine will talk to countries who it knows are likely to deliver the weapons it needs. France at the moment is not one of them.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But there is another danger for France. Its relative absence in Ukraine undermines its bid for leadership in the cause of European defence.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Already many countries of eastern Europe are wary of President Macron, who they believe was far too indulgent towards Russia's Vladimir Putin in the first months of the war. A narrative has taken root according to which France still feels ambivalent about an outright Ukrainian triumph.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">For Pierre Haroche, who lectures on international security at Queen Mary University of London, this narrative is unfair - and is not the reason for France's low levels of arms deliveries to Ukraine.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">However, he is firmly of the view that France should beef up its contribution as early as possible, in order to reassure eastern European countries like Poland that "we are all on the same page".</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"France's goal of strategic autonomy for Europe is focused primarily on building up our defence industries via joint procurement. But if you want joint procurement, you have to demonstrate to other countries that you have the same vision about our common security," he says.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"In order to make our objective of European co-operation viable, we need to show eastern European countries that co-operating with France and buying the idea of strategic autonomy is not a strategic risk."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Dr Haroche is calling for France to send 50 Leclerc main battle tanks. Mr Heisbourg would prefer air defence systems, which he says Ukraine is more in need of.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"It is like a fire extinguisher," says Dr Haroche. "If there is a fire in a neighbour's house it is better to offer your extinguisher straightaway, and not wait till the fire reaches your own home.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"It's not just generosity. It's also for your own protection." BBC</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify; ">bnbd24/kh</div>