<div style="text-align: justify; "><b style="font-size: 1rem;">After a weekend of mayhem, I'm beginning to understand why Russia's national symbol is the double-headed eagle: two heads staring in opposite directions.</b><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">First, Yevgeny Prigozhin declares he's ready to "go all the way" in his mutiny against the Russian military. Then he makes a sudden U-turn and orders his Wagner fighters back to base.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In a TV address, President Vladimir Putin declares the rebellion "a criminal adventure… a grievous crime… treason… blackmail and terrorism." Yet just a few hours later, as part of an agreement with Prigozhin, it's revealed that all criminal charges against the Wagner leader are being dropped.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">So much for "grievous crime".</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The Kremlin leader's mixed messages have been raising eyebrows here and changing perceptions of President Putin.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"He definitely looks weaker," says Konstantin Remchukov, owner and editor-in-chief of Nezavisimaya Gazeta.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"You can't make a public statement declaring people are criminals and then, on the same day, at the end of the day, let your press secretary disagree with you and say 'No, those people haven't broken the criminal code.'"</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Russia's former minister for economic development, Andrei Nechaev, makes a similar point.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">In a post on social media, Mr Nechaev argues: "The law has lost all power. Even grievous crimes won't be punished due to political expediency. In the morning, you might be declared a traitor. In the evening, you can be forgiven and the criminal case against you dropped.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"The country is so clearly on the threshold of big change."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Big change? Bold prediction. But if change is coming, might the Wagner rebellion be the trigger? A deal may have been done and the mutiny called off. But the fact the uprising happened on Mr Putin's watch is embarrassing for the president, who is also commander-in-chief of the Russian armed forces.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And keep in mind: Mr Putin's current presidential term runs out next year.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"All elite groups will now begin to think about the 2024 presidential election," predicts Mr Remchukov. "They will ask themselves whether they should rely on Vladimir Putin, as they have been doing until this military coup.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"Or should they think about someone new, who is capable of dealing with problems in a more contemporary manner?"</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"Someone new" for the presidency is not something you normally hear the Russian elite discussing openly. That doesn't mean a change of guard in the Kremlin is imminent. If there's one thing Vladimir Putin has perfected after 23 years in power, it is the art of political survival.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But his decision last year to launch the full-scale invasion of Ukraine has triggered widespread instability within his own country: everything from economic problems to drone attacks on Russian regions, from shelling of Russian border areas near Ukraine to cross-border incursions into Russia by saboteur groups, and now an armed uprising by Wagner.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">All of this ratchets up the pressure on the Kremlin leader.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Don't expect President Putin to concede that he got things wrong, though. Admitting mistakes and miscalculations is not his style.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">So what will be the Russian president's next move? A clue, perhaps, came in the latest edition of Russian State TV's flagship Sunday night news show. Reporting on the Wagner uprising, the presenter played an extract from an old Putin interview.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"Are you able to forgive?"</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"Yes. But not everything."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"What can't you forgive?"</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"Treachery."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">I wonder if Yevgeny Prigozhin was watching. BBC</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify; ">bnbd24/kh</div>