<div style="text-align: justify; "><b style="font-size: 1rem;">Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan dives Sunday into the final two-week stretch before a momentous election that has turned into a referendum on his two decades of divisive but transformative rule.</b><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The 69-year-old leader looked fighting fit as he strutted back on stage after a three-day illness and tossed flowers to rapturous crowds at an Istanbul aviation fest on Saturday.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">It was the perfect venue for reminding Turks of all they had gained since his Islamic-rooted party ended years of secular rule and launched an era of economic revival and military might.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">He was flanked by the president of Azerbaijan and the Ankara-backed premier of Libya -- two countries where drones built by his son-in-law's company helped swing the outcome of wars.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Istanbul itself has become a modern and chaotic megalopolis that has nearly doubled in size since Erdogan came to power in 2003.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But hiding beneath the surface are a more recent economic crisis and fierce social divisions that have given the May 14 parliamentary and presidential polls a powder keg feel.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">- 'Political coup attempt' -</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The nation of 85 million appears as splintered as ever about whether Erdogan has done more harm than good in the only Muslim-majority country of the NATO defence bloc.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Polls show him running neck-and-neck against secular opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu and his alliance of six disparate parties.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The entry of two minor candidates means that Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu will likely face each other again in a runoff on May 28.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But some of Erdogan's more hawkish ministers are sounding warnings about Washington leading Western efforts to undermine Turkey's might through the polls.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu referred Friday to US President Joe Biden's 2019 suggestion that Washington should embolden the opposition "to take on and defeat Erdogan".</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"July 15 was their actual coup attempt," Soylu said of a failed 2016 military putsch that Erdogan blamed on a US-based Muslim preacher.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"And May 14 is their political coup attempt."</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">- Splintered society -</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Erdogan continues to be lionised across more conservative swathes of Turkey for unshackling religious restrictions and bringing modern homes and jobs to millions of people through construction and state investment.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Turkey is now filled with hospitals and interconnected with airports and highways that stimulate trade and give the vast country a more inclusive feel.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">He empowered conservative women by enabling them to stay veiled in school and in civil service -- a right that did not exist in the secular state created from the Ottoman Empire's ashes in 1923.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">And he won early support from Turkey's long-repressed Kurdish minority by seeking a political solution to their armed struggle for an independent state that has claimed tens of thousands of lives.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But his equally passionate detractors point to a more authoritarian streak that emerged with the violent clampdown on protests in 2013 -- and became even more apparent with sweeping purges he unleashed after the failed 2016 coup attempt.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Erdogan turned against the Kurds and jailed or stripped tens of thousands of people of their state jobs on oblique "terror" charges that sent chills through Turkish society.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">His penchant for campaigning and gift for public speaking enabled him to keep winning at the polls.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But the current vote is turning into his toughest because of a huge economic crisis that erupted in late 2021.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">- Democratic traditions -</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Erdogan's biggest problems started when he decided to defy the rules of economics by slashing interest rates to fight inflation.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The lira lost more than half its value and inflation hit an eye-popping 85 percent since his experiment began.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Millions lost their savings and fell into deep debt.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Polls show the economy worrying Turks more than any other issue -- a point not lost on Kilicdaroglu.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The 74-year-old former civil servant pledges to restore economic order and bring in vast sums from Western investors who fled the chaos of Erdogan's more recent rule.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Kilicdaroglu's party will send out 300,000 monitors to Turkey's 50,000 polling stations to guarantee a fair outcome on election day.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Opposition security pointman Oguz Kaan Salici sounded certain about a smooth transition should Erdogan lose.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"Power will change hands the way it did in 2002," he said of the year Erdogan's party first won.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">A Western diplomatic source pointed to Turkey's strong tradition of respecting election results.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Erdogan's own supporters turned against him when the Turkish leader tried to annul the opposition's victory in 2019 mayoral elections in Istanbul.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">But the source observed a note of worry among Erdogan's rank and file.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify;">"For the first time, (ruling party) deputies are openly evoking the possibility of defeat," the source said. AFP</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br></div><div style="text-align: justify; ">bnbd24/kh</div>